Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BCH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-02-01 0.005697 0.006023 0.006360 0.006737 0.007148 0.007581 0.008076
2026-02-08 0.005129 0.005599 0.006109 0.006708 0.007395 0.008164 0.009096
2026-02-15 0.004786 0.005337 0.005954 0.006703 0.007596 0.008637 0.009958
2026-02-22 0.004477 0.005072 0.005755 0.006606 0.007652 0.008912 0.010573
2026-03-01 0.004229 0.004854 0.005586 0.006520 0.007696 0.009154 0.011143
2026-03-08 0.004059 0.004715 0.005497 0.006515 0.007828 0.009501 0.011860
2026-03-15 0.003817 0.004473 0.005266 0.006313 0.007689 0.009481 0.012070
2026-03-22 0.003705 0.004384 0.005217 0.006336 0.007838 0.009840 0.012823
2026-03-29 0.003627 0.004333 0.005211 0.006411 0.008054 0.010300 0.013750
2026-04-05 0.003500 0.004212 0.005108 0.006348 0.008076 0.010485 0.014281
2026-04-12 0.003406 0.004130 0.005050 0.006343 0.008174 0.010779 0.014997
2026-04-19 0.003302 0.004029 0.004963 0.006291 0.008198 0.010965 0.015552
2026-04-26 0.003270 0.004022 0.005002 0.006417 0.008489 0.011569 0.016845
2026-05-03 0.003183 0.003940 0.004936 0.006390 0.008552 0.011827 0.017588
2026-05-10 0.003110 0.003874 0.004887 0.006385 0.008646 0.012138 0.018446
2026-05-17 0.003013 0.003770 0.004784 0.006295 0.008604 0.012226 0.018911
2026-05-24 0.002924 0.003677 0.004690 0.006214 0.008571 0.012323 0.019400
2026-05-31 0.002866 0.003622 0.004648 0.006209 0.008655 0.012618 0.020287
2026-06-07 0.002752 0.003487 0.004489 0.006021 0.008438 0.012392 0.020143
2026-06-14 0.002709 0.003451 0.004469 0.006043 0.008559 0.012749 0.021183
2026-06-21 0.002684 0.003437 0.004481 0.006112 0.008760 0.013259 0.022592
2026-06-28 0.002621 0.003369 0.004413 0.006054 0.008746 0.013383 0.023205
2026-07-05 0.002577 0.003327 0.004379 0.006049 0.008820 0.013671 0.024204